Those figures compare with declines of 1.3% for the S&P 500 and 2.2% for the Nasdaq-100 reported by Fox Business as the Democratic wins came in. NBC News said Nasdaq-100 futures were down as much as 2.5% at one point. Our earlier update at 9:35 PM PT had them at about -1% and -1.7%.
From Down 2.5% to Down Half a Percent
Investing.com had S&P 500 futures at 7,565.50, down 0.39%, and Nasdaq-100 futures at 28,135.0, down 0.6%, at 1:24 AM ET. It described investors as welcoming "some clarity in the political outlook" after Democrats were projected to win both chambers, and pointed to AMD's after-hours gain on strong third-quarter results and a drop in oil prices this week on signs of diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran.
Nothing in the results themselves changed overnight. The AP still projects Democratic control of the House and Senate, and Gina Hinojosa's Texas win and data-center moratorium pledge still stand. What changed was the price investors were willing to pay for that outcome.
Seoul's 400-Point Round Trip
South Korea's market showed the swing in one session. The KOSPI opened 2.43% higher at 5,786.13, turned lower around 10:11 AM local time and fell as far as 5,421.72 at 12:45 PM as U.S. vote counting progressed, then closed at 5,683.80, up 0.62%, according to Yonhap. Foreign investors were net sellers of about 2.5 trillion won, and Samsung Electronics closed down 0.68% and SK Hynix down 0.14% after trading much lower intraday, per Global Economic.
Japan did not recover as much. Reuters reported the Nikkei 225 about 3% lower at a more than five-month low, led by SoftBank, and European futures down 1.4%.
Bonds and the Dollar Did Not Retrace
Reuters reported the 10-year Treasury yield down 6 basis points at 4.906% and the dollar index 0.37% lower at 101.34. The yen was 0.7% stronger at 157.55 per dollar and the euro rose 0.5% to $1.1249. TD Securities' Prashant Newnaha said bonds were "coming out as the clear winner" as markets weighed slower government spending and possible AI regulation.
So while equity futures pared most of their losses, the rates and currency moves had not reversed at the time of those reports. That split is worth watching at the open, since rate-sensitive sectors and the AI-linked names can move in different directions.
Where Wednesday's Straddles Now Sit
At Tuesday's close, Cboe delayed data had SPY at $754.35, and the November 4 $754 straddle at about $8.73 at midpoints, roughly 1.16%, with break-evens near $745.30 and $762.70. Implied volatility on both legs was about 27% to 28%. For QQQ, which closed at $685.28, the November 4 $685 straddle was about $13.13, or 1.92%, per Cboe, though those quotes were wide.
At 2 AM ET levels, both index futures sit comfortably inside those ranges. At the worst of the night, the Nasdaq-100 drop was beyond QQQ's 1.92% range. The open is still several hours away, and a futures level is only a rough guide to where SPY or QQQ will trade at 9:30 AM ET.
When the Event Premium Has Nowhere to Go
One-day options that expire the morning after an event carry a large share of their value as premium for that event. If the underlying opens near where it closed, the extrinsic value in Wednesday's straddles can shrink quickly, which hurts buyers and helps sellers. If the overnight swings return after the open, short positions can be exposed to the kind of move the market showed was possible earlier in the night.
Traders who hold short premium through a binary event often use defined-risk structures such as iron condors, so the maximum loss is known ahead of time. Long-premium traders, on the other hand, need the move to exceed what they paid, not just to happen. Our election-night futures piece covers the first leg of the move, and our implied volatility guide explains why implied moves are estimates, not limits.
Sources
*By the OptionsPilot Editorial Team. Published November 3, 2026, 11:30 PM PT. This article is for education only and is not investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors.*
