This follows our earlier update on the House projection. Below is what changed since then and how a few of the most exposed option chains are set up.
Six Senate Flips, Including Texas
The AP live coverage said six Senate seats had flipped toward Democrats, and that it was the first time in decades that Texas, Kansas and South Carolina had elected Democratic senators. Democrats also flipped seats in North Carolina and Ohio. The AP still described the House as too early to call in its Senate story, while CNBC's Election Desk had projected a Democratic House earlier in the night.
A Democratic Congress with a Republican president means divided government for the last two years of President Trump's term. For markets the question tonight was less about federal law, which needs a presidential signature, and more about the states, which is where Texas comes in.
A Concession in Austin and a Moratorium Pledge
Hinojosa campaigned on a moratorium on new data-center construction, stricter rules on water and power use, and an end to tax breaks, Yahoo Finance reported. Texas accounts for more than 25% of planned U.S. data-center capacity by 2030, per the same report, and Wells Fargo estimates the state holds about 27% of U.S. data-center gigawatts, according to CNBC. Abbott had also announced a pause of his own during the campaign, which Hinojosa called an "election year pause."
Raymond James analyst Ed Mills wrote before the vote that the Texas race was "particularly important for the next leg of the AI trade," and Bank of America called it "one of the highest impact elections for the entire utility sector," Yahoo Finance reported. Hinojosa takes office in January 2027, per the AP, and any moratorium would still have to go through Texas law and regulators, so the timing and scope are not known tonight.
Futures Ease Even as the Sweep Firms Up
In CNBC's 12:11 AM ET update, S&P 500 futures were down about 1%, Nasdaq-100 futures about 1.7% and Dow futures 341 points, or 0.6%. That is a little better than the roughly 1.3% and 2.2% declines CNBC reported around 11 PM ET. Our earlier piece put Wednesday's SPY straddle near 1.16% and QQQ's near 1.92%, so at this hour both futures moves sit back inside those ranges, though the open is still more than seven hours away.
Asia kept selling. CNBC reported SoftBank Group down more than 8%, Disco down 10.19%, Advantest more than 8% and Tokyo Electron 7.04%, with SK Hynix off 5.08%. CNBC said SpaceX shares were 5% to 6% lower in Robinhood overnight trading during the evening, and Tesla more than 4% lower.
Vistra: One Friday Straddle, Two Events
Vistra (VST), based in Irving, Texas, sells a large share of its power into the Texas grid and has been traded as a beneficiary of data-center demand. It closed Tuesday at $139.59, up about 3.7%, per Cboe delayed data, and the stock had not yet traded on the result.
Vistra also reports third-quarter results on Friday, November 6, with its call at 10 AM ET. That means the November 6 options cover both the election reaction and the earnings report:
The high front-week implied volatility shows how much of the premium is concentrated in the next three sessions. A trader who buys the Friday straddle needs the combined move from the election and the earnings report to exceed about 7.8%. A trader who sells it is exposed to both events at once, with no chance to adjust between them if the stock gaps at Wednesday's open.
NRG's Expirations Split the Two Events
NRG Energy (NRG), based in Houston, closed at $96.26, up about 1.7%. Unlike Vistra, it reports on November 9, after this week's Friday expiration. That separates the two events by expiration date (Cboe):
NRG's weekly quotes were wide, with some bid-ask spreads above $1, so midpoints are only a rough guide and fills could be worse. The November 20 $95 put had traded 1,293 contracts on Tuesday against open interest of 2,421. The data does not show whether those were buys or sells.
Solar's Monthly Range After a Call-Heavy Day
Solar moved the other way. CNBC reported that the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) rallied about 3% in the regular session and kept rising after hours, and that TAN options volume ran about 40 times normal, with 99% calls, as covered in our earlier election-night piece. TAN closed at $43.34, per Cboe. Its November 20 $43 and $44 straddles were both about $3.77 to $3.78, roughly 8.7%, with implied volatility near 50%. The $44 call carried open interest of 2,431, much of it likely built during Tuesday's rush.
After a heavy call-buying day, implied volatility can drop quickly if the stock holds steady, which can hurt call buyers even when the price does not fall. A call spread lowers that cost and risk in exchange for a capped gain.
Reading Two Events in One Premium
When an expiration covers more than one event, as Vistra's Friday options do, the implied move is a single number for both, and it does not say which event will drive the move. Comparing expirations that fall before and after a scheduled report, as with NRG, is one way to see roughly how the market splits the premium. Defined-risk spreads cap the loss if the stock gaps through a short strike at the open. Our implied volatility guide explains why an implied move is an estimate and not a limit.
Sources
*By the OptionsPilot Editorial Team. Published November 3, 2026, 9:35 PM PT. This article is for education only and is not investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors.*
