That is close to double the move we covered in our earlier election-night article, when futures stood at about -0.7% and -1.6% around 9 PM ET. The difference matters for options because the larger move now goes beyond what Wednesday's index options had priced.
A House Projection and a Senate Map Leaning Blue
The Election Desk projects Democrats will finish with at least 225 House seats, more than the 218 needed, against at least 160 for Republicans. In the Senate, Democrats had already flipped North Carolina with Roy Cooper and held Georgia with Jon Ossoff, per AP projections cited by CNBC. The desk lists four Republican-held seats as leaning toward a Democratic flip: Kansas, Ohio, Texas and South Carolina. Republicans held Florida's Senate seat. CNBC said Kalshi odds for Democratic Senate control were above 90%.
Polls are still open in several states. California closes at 11 PM ET and Alaska at 1 AM ET, so the Senate count is not final, and the market reaction could still widen or narrow before Wednesday's open.
Why Texas Is the Race the AI Trade Is Watching
The sharper drop in Nasdaq futures ties back to data centers. Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa was leading Republican Gov. Greg Abbott with more than half the vote counted, CNBC reported. Hinojosa has called for a moratorium on new data centers until the legislature passes guardrails. Wells Fargo estimates Texas accounts for about 27% of U.S. data-center gigawatts, and Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel wrote that "the health of the 'AI Revolution' will be influenced by the TX Governor's Race."
CNBC reported Microsoft, Amazon and Nvidia lower in extended trading, with CoreWeave down about 6% and Tesla down more than 4% in Robinhood's overnight session. Reuters noted Treasury yields fell, which some analysts said could soften the selloff over time.
Both Wednesday Index Straddles Now Look Too Small
SPY and QQQ have daily expirations, so the November 4 contracts were the market's estimate for the first session after the vote. Using Tuesday closing quotes from Cboe:
A 1.3% drop in S&P futures and a 2.3% drop in Nasdaq-100 futures would put both ETFs below their lower break-evens if those moves hold until the open. As a rough guide, 2.3% below QQQ's close is about $669.50. Futures and ETFs do not line up exactly, because futures are measured from their own settlement price, but the gap is large enough to be meaningful.
For anyone short those straddles, or short iron condors with strikes inside that range, this is the case where the losses come from a gap: the position cannot be adjusted overnight, and the first price available may already be past the short strike. Same-day options also have very high gamma, so small further moves near the open change their value quickly. Spread positions limit that loss to the width of the strikes minus the credit received. Our implied volatility guide explains why an implied move is an estimate, not a cap.
Tesla and CoreWeave Against Their Own Ranges
Single stocks tied to Texas and the data-center trade had their own priced ranges:
Overnight trading on retail platforms is thin, and those prices can change a lot before 9:30 AM ET.
A VIX Above 20 and the Morning After
The Cboe Volatility Index closed at 20.83 on Tuesday (Cboe), and CNBC reported VIX futures above 20 in the evening. Before the results, CNBC cited a JPMorgan estimate that a blue wave could cut about 0.5% from the S&P 500 on Wednesday. Futures are already more than twice that.
Two things decide what happens to option prices next. If the result is clear by the morning, much of the event premium usually comes out quickly, the same way it does after earnings, even if prices gap. If there are contested races, Freedom Capital Markets' Jay Woods told CNBC, "that's where the market could really get riled up," and implied volatility could stay higher for longer. Many strategists quoted by CNBC still expect any election move to be short-lived, but that is a view, not a forecast traders can price precisely.
Sources
*By the OptionsPilot Editorial Team. Published November 3, 2026, 7:40 PM PT. This article is for education only and is not investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors.*
