EBITDA Climbs More Than Fifty Percent on a Hot Power Summer
Vistra's Investor Relations release (also carried on PR Newswire) put GAAP net income at $1.140 billion for the third quarter, up from $652 million a year earlier, and Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA at $2.378 billion, up more than 50% from $1.581 billion. Operating revenues were $6.347 billion, versus $4.971 billion a year earlier. MarketBeat cited EPS of $3.25 against a $2.98 consensus and revenue of $6.35 billion against about $6.03 billion expected.
Management tied the Adjusted EBITDA jump to higher realized energy and capacity prices, three months of contribution from plants acquired from Lotus, and the return of Martin Lake Unit 1, during a summer that set all-time peak demand records in July in both ERCOT and PJM. Segment Adjusted EBITDA included $1.227 billion in Texas and $979 million in the East. GAAP results also included a $559 million unrealized gain from hedges expected to settle in future years and a partial impairment tied to the Moss Landing 350 facility.
Guidance Narrowed for 2026 and Opened for 2027
The company raised the midpoint and narrowed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.1 billion–$7.5 billion and Ongoing Operations Adjusted free cash flow before growth to $4.3 billion–$4.7 billion. It initiated 2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $7.7 billion–$8.5 billion and Adjusted FCFbG of $4.3 billion–$5.1 billion. As of October 30, 2026, Vistra said it had hedged about 100% of expected generation volumes for 2026, about 98% for 2027, and about 78% for 2028.
Those ranges matter for longer-dated call and put pricing because they re-anchor 2026–2027 cash-flow expectations after a quarter that already cleared a large seasonal power print. They do not remove commodity, weather, or regulatory risk around data-center and large-load demand that has swung the stock this week.
Another Billion-Five for Buybacks After Cogentrix Closes
The board authorized an additional $1.5 billion of share repurchases, expected to be used by year-end 2028, leaving about $2.5 billion of authorization available. As of November 2, 2026, Vistra had executed about $6.7 billion of buybacks since November 2021 and had about 339 million shares outstanding. In October 2026 it closed the Cogentrix Energy acquisition, adding about 5,500 MW of natural gas generation, began operations at the 405 MW Pulaski Solar facility under a Microsoft PPA and the 100 MW Deer Creek solar-and-storage project, and announced a 20-year 207 MW PPA with New Era Energy and Digital at Odessa.
Liquidity was about $8.9 billion at September 30 before October–November uses of cash for preferred redemption, the Cogentrix close, and assumed-debt repayment that left about $5.4 billion on a pro forma basis.
Five Percent Premarket Inside a Seven-Percent Weekly Band
OptionSlam tracked a roughly 6.87% implied move on the November 6 weekly straddle and about 11.32% on the November 20 monthly into the report, with a monthly straddle marked near $12.78 against an about $112.89 reference. Earnings Watcher had separately put a broader earnings implied move near ±12.7%. Measured from Thursday's close, a 6.9% weekly band puts the break-evens near about $105 and $121. A premarket print near $119.11 is about 5.5% above the cash close and sits inside that weekly band, still short of the upper weekly break-even and well inside the roughly 11% November monthly band.
Delayed Cboe quotes are a reference for Friday's open rather than fills: equity options do not trade until 9:30 AM ET, premarket stock prints can fade or extend, and VST has been a high-beta power and data-center proxy after this week's AI-infrastructure swings. When a beat-and-raise gaps the stock higher but leaves it inside the weekly prepaid move, short weekly premium is so far holding on the stock leg alone, while long straddles that needed a clean break of the band remain underwater before any IV crush. Our implied volatility guide covers how post-earnings IV usually compresses after the uncertainty resolves, and the OCC options disclosure document explains the risks of standardized options, including assignment.
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*By the OptionsPilot Editorial Team. Published November 6, 2026, 4:33 AM PT. This article is for education only and is not investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors.*
