The producer price index for final demand rose 0.3% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its 8:30 a.m. ET release on Friday, November 13, 2026. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected 0.4%, according to CNBC, which called the print slightly less than expected.

The monthly number cooled sharply from September, which BLS revised up to 1.4% from the 1.3% first reported. But on an unadjusted basis, final-demand prices were up 6.5% from a year earlier, the largest 12-month rise since November 2022. Trading Economics had pencilled in 6.6% for the annual rate.

Softer Month, Hotter Year

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Both things are true at once, and which one a trader focuses on shapes how the number reads:

  • The month was mild. 0.3% is the smallest gain since July's 0.1%, and energy prices at the final-demand level edged down 0.1% after a 10.0% jump in September.
  • The trend is not. The annual rate has risen from 2.8% in October 2025 to 6.5% now, according to the BLS table.
  • The BLS's preferred core measure didn't slow. Final demand less foods, energy and trade services rose 0.5%, the same as September, and is up 4.9% over 12 months.

    • That last point matters for the Fed debate. After Tuesday's hot CPI, which we covered here, the KBC Market Research desk wrote in a note carried by FXStreet that money markets were pricing three to four hikes through mid-2027, with a roughly 15% chance of a 50-basis-point move in December. A one-tenth miss on the headline is unlikely to remove that debate by itself.

    Food, Trucking and Chemicals Did the Lifting

    The BLS breakdown:

  • Goods rose 0.5%. Over 60% of that came from goods less foods and energy, also up 0.5%. Final-demand foods rose 1.3%. Basic organic chemicals jumped 3.9%, while diesel fuel fell 7.9%.
  • Services rose 0.2%, a fifth straight gain. Three-fourths of that came from transportation and warehousing, up 2.0%, led by truck freight, up 3.9%.
  • Trade margins fell 0.2%, with machinery and vehicle wholesaling margins down 4.2%. Lower margins help pull the headline down even when input prices are rising.
  • Goods over 12 months: +10.2%, the largest since October 2022.

    • Further up the pipeline, unprocessed goods for intermediate demand fell 3.1%, led by a 10.3% drop in crude petroleum. That eased the month, but crude has since bounced: KBC noted Brent pushing above $96 on Friday morning.

    SPY Pushed Toward the Top of Its Same-Day Straddle

    On Thursday's close, SPY's November 13 $757 call last traded at $3.35 and the $757 put at $2.30, according to Cboe delayed quotes. That is a straddle of roughly $5.65, or about 0.75% of the $757.12 close, with breakevens near $751.50 and $762.80. Those are last-trade prices from late Thursday, not midpoints, so treat them as approximate.

    Yahoo Finance premarket data showed SPY at $760.13 at 8:29 a.m. ET, already up 0.4%, then $762.58 at 8:33 and $761.86 at 8:38, about 0.6% above Thursday's close. That puts SPY just below the straddle's upper breakeven before the opening bell. Holders of the expiring $757 call were near break-even on that print, while the put was far out of the money.

    The Monday November 16 $757 straddle last traded around $8.16 (about 1.1%), so it has more room before a move like this covers its cost, but it also carries weekend risk.

    Elsewhere at 8:38 a.m. ET, QQQ was about 0.5% higher at $691.91 versus a $688.17 close, and IWM about 0.6% higher at $280.06 from $278.44. TLT was roughly flat at $79.68 versus $79.72, after rising from $79.42 just before the release. The VIX was at 18.22 on Cboe's 8:38 a.m. quote, down from Thursday's 18.70 close.

    Before the Bell Becomes the Session

  • Premarket isn't the open. Early ETF quotes can be thin, and the 9:30 a.m. ET cash open often reprices the first reaction.
  • Expiration-day gamma. Same-day options near the money change value fast with each point in SPY. A small move can swing a $757 call or put by a large percentage.
  • Event premium fades either way. With the PPI print out, the event part of implied volatility usually comes down. A long straddle needs the move to outrun that.
  • The 4.9% core trend is still there. Rate-sensitive positions in TLT or small caps can react to Fed speakers later in the day, separately from the headline miss.
  • Settlement differences. SPY options are American-style and settle into shares; SPX options are cash-settled and European-style.

    • Our implied volatility guide explains event premium, and the OCC options disclosure document covers the risks of standardized options.

    Sources

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics: Producer Price Indexes, October 2026
  • CNBC: Wholesale prices rose 0.3% in October, slightly less than expected
  • Trading Economics: US producer inflation expected to moderate in October
  • FXStreet / KBC Bank: US October PPI figures coming in later today
  • Yahoo Finance: SPY quote
  • Yahoo Finance: TLT quote
  • Cboe: SPY delayed options quotes
  • Cboe: VIX index

    • *By the OptionsPilot Editorial Team. Published November 13, 2026, 5:39 AM PT. This article is for education only and is not investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors.*