The consumer price index rose 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis after a 0.6% gain in September, and the index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% for a third straight month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its 8:30 a.m. ET release on Tuesday, November 10, 2026. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected 0.3% for the headline and 0.2% for core, according to CNBC, so both lines came in a tenth above forecasts. CoinDesk described the print as stronger than expected.

As flagged in our preview, the BLS did not publish 12-month changes for most series this time, because it collected no October 2025 data during last year's government shutdown.

Core Hit the Number Waller Named

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The core reading matters more than usual this month. On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a 50-basis-point hike at the December 8-9 meeting "should be considered" if October core CPI came in "around 0.3% or higher again," according to FXStreet's summary of his remarks. He said he would back at least a quarter-point hike even if the data improved. FXStreet reported that futures priced 0% odds of a half-point move before he spoke, and that December hike odds had risen to 84.2% on Monday.

A 0.3% core reading is exactly the level Waller described. That doesn't mean the committee will move by 50 basis points, but it does mean a bigger hike is now a live question for rate markets rather than a fringe one.

Where the Extra Tenth Came From

The BLS breakdown points to food and services rather than gasoline:

  • Food rose 0.5% after being flat in September, with food at home up 0.4% and food away from home up 0.5%. Beef rose 0.9%.
  • Energy slowed to 0.7% from 5.2%. Seasonally adjusted gasoline rose 1.0%, though prices fell 0.7% before seasonal adjustment. Electricity rose 0.9%.
  • Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase. Owners' equivalent rent rose 0.3% and rent 0.2%.
  • Transportation services rose 0.8%, recreation 0.8%, motor vehicle insurance 0.7% and hospital services 0.8%.
  • Used cars and trucks fell 1.2%, one of the few major categories to decline.

    • SPY Stayed Inside Its Same-Day Straddle

    On Monday's close, SPY's November 10 $753 straddle cost about $6.08 on Cboe midpoints, roughly 0.81% of the $752.69 close, with breakevens near $746.90 and $759.10. In the first minutes after the release, Yahoo Finance premarket data showed SPY falling from about $753.40 at 8:29 a.m. ET to $749.92 at 8:30 and $749.67 at 8:38, about 0.4% below Monday's close.

    That is a move in the right direction for put holders but well short of the straddle's lower breakeven so far. If SPY opens around that level, the same-day straddle would be worth roughly its intrinsic value of about $3.30 plus whatever time value is left, compared with the $6.08 paid. That gap is the CPI event premium leaving the options. Live quotes are on Cboe's SPY page.

    Longer expirations carry less of that premium per day. The November 12 straddle priced about 1.31% on Monday, so a 0.4% drop eats less of its value, but it also keeps exposure to whatever follows the open.

    Rate-Sensitive Growth Took the Bigger Hit

    The reaction was larger outside the S&P 500. Yahoo Finance showed QQQ at $672.03 at 8:38 a.m. ET, about 1.1% below its $679.35 close, and the small-cap IWM about 0.7% lower at $280.47 from $282.51. TLT, the long-Treasury ETF, slipped about 0.4% to $81.64 from $81.96, consistent with higher yields. Nasdaq-100 futures were already down about 0.4% before the data, according to Quartz.

    For options traders, that spread matters. A hot inflation print tends to hit long-duration growth stocks and small caps harder than the broad index, so the same headline can produce very different outcomes in SPY, QQQ and IWM contracts.

    The Rest of the Day's Checklist

  • Premarket isn't the open. Early ETF prints can be thin, and the cash session at 9:30 a.m. ET often reprices the first reaction.
  • Implied volatility can fall even as prices drop. Once a scheduled number is out, short-dated IV usually comes down. Buyers of puts need the decline to outrun that drop.
  • Rate-sensitive bets can move without stocks. Rate-hike odds for December can shift as Fed speakers react, independent of what equities do.
  • Bond holiday. The U.S. bond market is closed Wednesday for Veterans Day, as noted by TipRanks, which can thin rates liquidity into the next session.
  • Assignment on short SPY options. SPY options are American-style and settle into shares; SPX options are cash-settled and European-style.

    • Our implied volatility guide explains how event premium works, and the OCC options disclosure document covers the risks of standardized options.

    Sources

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index, October 2026
  • CNBC: October CPI report preview and consensus
  • CoinDesk: U.S. CPI rose stronger than expected 0.4% in October; core rate rose 0.3%
  • FXStreet: Waller puts 50 bps hike on the table
  • Quartz: S&P 500 futures flat ahead of October CPI
  • Yahoo Finance: SPY quote
  • Yahoo Finance: QQQ quote
  • Cboe: SPY delayed options quotes
  • OCC: Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options

    • *By the OptionsPilot Editorial Team. Published November 10, 2026, 5:39 AM PT. This article is for education only and is not investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors.*