The Labor Department's consumer price index for October is scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, an hour before the cash open. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect headline CPI to rise 0.3% from September and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, to rise 0.2%, according to CNBC. That would be a slowdown from September's 0.6% headline and 0.3% core readings.

Index futures were close to flat Monday night, with Nasdaq-100 futures up about 0.2%, CNBC reported.

Stocks Already Rallied Into the Number

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Monday was a big day. Per Reuters, the S&P 500 rose 2.35% to 7,549.94, its largest one-day gain since April 8, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.74% after the S&P's worst week since April 2025. Oil fell more than 4% in WTI and more than 5% in Brent, which eased some inflation worries.

Even so, Reuters reported that CME FedWatch still showed better than 80% odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the December meeting. That puts a lot of weight on Tuesday's print: a hot number would reinforce the hike, while a soft one could challenge it.

How Much Move SPY Options Allow

At Monday's close, SPY finished at $752.69. Using Cboe bid-ask midpoints from its delayed quote table:

| Expiration | $753 straddle | Share of SPY | ATM IV | Tuesday, Nov 10 (CPI day)~$6.08~0.81%~19.2% Wednesday, Nov 11~$8.12~1.08%~18.2% | Thursday, Nov 12 | ~$9.83 | ~1.31% | ~18.0% |

The Tuesday straddle's breakevens sit near $746.90 and $759.10. Same-day implied volatility of about 19% is above SPY's 30-day IV of about 15.5%, which is the extra premium the market is charging for the release.

VIX Came In Before the Data

The Cboe Volatility Index closed at 19.92 on Monday, down 5.72 points, after trading as high as 23.37. A lower VIX going into a scheduled release means options are cheaper than they were last week, but the CPI-day premium in short-dated SPY contracts is still visible in the table above.

Reading a Data-Day Straddle

  • Fixed event, fast decay. Once the number is out at 8:30 AM ET, most of the extra premium in Tuesday's expiration tends to come out quickly, whether the market moves or not.
  • Direction is a separate bet. A straddle profits only if SPY moves past a breakeven; a directional call or put also needs the move to go the right way.
  • Overnight gaps. The number lands before the regular session opens, so a short straddle held from Monday's close carries whatever gap the release produces.
  • Index vs. ETF. SPX options are cash-settled and European-style, while SPY options are American-style and settle into shares, which changes assignment risk on short positions.

    • The release itself will be posted on the BLS CPI page. Our implied volatility guide explains how event premium works, and the OCC options disclosure document covers the risks of standardized options.

    Sources

  • CNBC: Stock futures little changed ahead of CPI
  • Reuters via Yahoo Finance: Wall St jumps as oil slide cools inflation worries
  • Cboe: SPY delayed options quotes
  • Cboe: VIX index
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index
  • OCC: Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options

    • *By the OptionsPilot Editorial Team. Published November 9, 2026, 7:20 PM PT. This article is for education only and is not investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors.*