From Green to Red as the Polls Closed
The swing tracked prediction-market odds. CNBC cited Kalshi at about 97% for Democratic control of the House and around 90% for the Senate, and Reuters cited a BetInt aggregate of 99% and 97% as of 8:21 PM ET. CNBC noted that it had not yet called any races and that polls had not closed in every state, so these odds were still moving at publication time. Treasuries rallied, with the 10-year yield down more than 3 basis points to about 4.92%, and Bloomberg said the dollar weakened against most major currencies.
AI and Big Tech Took the Hit, Solar Caught a Bid
The pressure fell hardest on the AI trade, which explains why Nasdaq-100 futures fell about twice as much as S&P futures. Reuters reported that a Democratic-led Congress could put more scrutiny on AI companies, partly because of public opposition to data centers, though analysts saw slim odds of legislation that would seriously slow the buildout. CNBC reported Microsoft and Amazon trading lower after hours, AMD's post-earnings gain shrinking to about 4% from double digits, and other chip stocks slipping into the red.
Solar went the other way on speculation that a Democratic Congress would halt the administration's policies against the industry. CNBC reported the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) higher after hours, and said TAN options volume ran about 40 times normal during the day, more than 20,000 contracts by midday, with 99% of them calls, per Cboe LiveVol data.
Wednesday's Straddles Against an Overnight Futures Move
SPY and QQQ have options expiring every day, so the November 4 contracts were the cleanest read on what traders priced for the first session after the vote. At Tuesday's close, SPY finished at $754.35, up about 0.3%, and its November 4 $754 straddle cost about $8.73 at midpoints, or roughly 1.2% of the share price, per delayed Cboe data. QQQ closed at $685.28, and its November 4 $685 straddle was about $13.13, roughly 1.9%, per Cboe.
A 0.7% drop in S&P futures sits inside SPY's priced range, and a 1.6% drop in Nasdaq-100 futures is close to, but still inside, QQQ's. Two cautions apply. Futures trade through the night and the ETFs do not open until 9:30 AM ET, so the overnight number can grow or shrink before options holders can act. And a straddle needs the move to exceed its full cost by expiration to profit; if the gap lands near the priced range, much of the premium is likely to drain as the election uncertainty clears, the same way it does after an earnings report.
The VIX Above 20 and a Call-Heavy Day in VIX Options
The Cboe Volatility Index closed at 20.83 on Tuesday, per Cboe, and CNBC reported VIX futures at about 20.90 in the evening. VIX options volume leaned to calls, about 524,000 against 300,000 puts. The busiest lines were in the November 18 expiry: the $17 put at about 58,900 contracts, the $30 call at about 53,600 against open interest of about 405,000, and the $25 call at about 46,300. The public data does not show whether those were buys or sells, and VIX options settle to VIX futures rather than the spot index, so their value follows the futures curve.
Why Many Strategists Expect a Short-Lived Move
CNBC said many investors see any election-driven move as temporary, and quoted Edward Jones strategist Angelo Kourkafas saying the results "could act as a clearing event removing some uncertainty." CNBC also noted the S&P 500 has risen in the year after each of the last 11 midterm elections from 1982 to 2022, averaging about 13.7%. That history is a small sample and not a forecast, but it is one reason election-night implied volatility often fades faster than traders expect.
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*By the OptionsPilot Editorial Team. Published November 3, 2026, 6:45 PM PT. This article is for education only and is not investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors.*
