Revenue Came In at Less Than Half the Estimate
From Rigetti's release:
Over nine months, revenue was $10.9 million, up about 110% from $5.2 million a year earlier.
A Full-Year Number That Rests on One Delivery
Rigetti expects 2026 revenue of about $20 million, "assuming C-DAC customer acceptance and associated revenue recognition in the fourth quarter." C-DAC is the customer receiving a Rigetti system. With $10.9 million booked through September, that guidance implies roughly $9 million in the fourth quarter, more than six times what the company recorded in the third. CNBC said FactSet's full-year estimate was $22.6 million.
That makes the acceptance itself the main event for the rest of the year, and it doesn't come with a date on the calendar the way an earnings release does. If it slips, the revenue could move into 2027.
On the technology side, the company said its Cepheus-1-108Q system reached 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity, signed a definitive $100 million agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce, and is targeting a 300-plus-qubit system by mid-2028. D-Wave announced a similar up-to-$100 million CHIPS Act agreement in its own results.
The Options Market Had Priced a Bigger Swing
At Tuesday's close, Cboe delayed quotes showed these at-the-money $12 straddles, using mid-prices:
| Expiration | $12 call | $12 put | Straddle | Share of $12.15 close |
The November 13 straddle implied break-evens near $10.69 and $13.31. The after-hours price near $11.18 sits inside that range, so a straddle bought at the close would be showing a loss at that price even after an 8% drop.
Implied volatility was about 150% on November 13 strikes, compared with roughly 106% for November 20, 97% for November 27 and 85% for December 18. Cboe's 30-day IV index was near 90%. Much of that front-week premium was tied to the report and tends to drain out after it, a pattern known as IV crush. Even after the event, IV in the 80% to 100% range means option prices stay expensive relative to most stocks.
Busy Strikes Hugged the Stock Price
Volume was balanced, with about 29,700 calls and 27,200 puts. The most active contracts were short-dated and close to the stock price:
Cboe's data don't show whether these were bought or sold, or whether they were part of spreads. In a stock that trades around $11, the bid-ask spread on cheap contracts can be a large share of the premium. Our implied volatility guide explains IV crush, and the OCC options disclosure document covers the risks of standardized options.
Sources
*By the OptionsPilot Editorial Team. Published November 10, 2026, 2:24 PM PT. This article is for education only and is not investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors.*
