The Setup
Stock: META trading at $485 Date: 30 days before earnings IV Rank: 35 (moderate — not yet pricing in the earnings event)
You believe earnings will cause a large move, and IV hasn't spiked yet.
Trade Entry:
Total debit: $28.30 per share ($2,830 per contract pair)
Calculating Breakevens
The math is simple:
META needs to move at least 5.8% in either direction for this trade to profit at expiration.
Scenario Analysis
Let's look at five outcomes at expiration:
| Scenario | META Price | Call Value | Put Value | Total Value | P/L |
The worst case is a $2,830 loss if META closes right at $485. Any move beyond the breakevens produces profit.
What Actually Happened
META reports earnings. Revenue beats by 4%, but guidance is cautious. The stock drops to $452 the next morning.
Post-earnings position:
Total value: $33.80 Profit: $33.80 - $28.30 = $5.50 per share ($550 profit)
That's a 19.4% return on the $2,830 invested.
The IV Crush Factor
Notice something — META dropped $33 (6.8%), but the put is only worth $33.50, barely above intrinsic value. Before earnings, that put might have been worth $40+ with all the time value.
IV crush collapsed the extrinsic value of both options overnight. This is why the profit is smaller than the raw stock move suggests.
Had you bought the straddle two weeks before earnings (when IV was lower) instead of the day before (when IV peaked), the crush would have been less damaging relative to your entry cost.
Timing Matters
The best time to enter a long straddle for an earnings play:
Some traders buy the straddle early, ride the IV expansion for a profit, and close before earnings without taking the binary risk at all.
Position Sizing
Straddles have a defined max loss (the premium paid), which makes sizing straightforward:
Always know your max loss before entering. With OptionsPilot, you can scan for straddle costs across your watchlist to find setups that fit your account size and risk budget.