Revenue Rose; the Loss Widened Past Estimates
DraftKings' investor relations release put total revenue at $1,329 million, up 16% from $1,144 million a year earlier. Sports revenue was $783.6 million, up 31.5%, on Sports Consumer Volume of about $13.9 billion and a Sports Net Revenue Margin of 5.6%, up from 5.2%. Monthly Unique Payers rose about 13% to 4.1 million, and Average Revenue per MUP rose about 3% to $109. GAAP diluted loss per share was $0.94, and Adjusted Loss Per Share was $0.53. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $316.9 million, versus negative $126.5 million a year earlier.
The miss is against Street figures, not against the company's own prior guide for the quarter. Investing.com cited an adjusted loss estimate of $0.36 and revenue consensus near $1.41 billion; Yahoo Finance / Benzinga had revenue consensus at about $1.398 billion and an adjusted-loss estimate of $0.39. Either way, revenue and the adjusted bottom line both cleared the wrong side of consensus. A fuller copy of the same release also appeared on Stockhouse.
Predictions Rewrote the Full-Year Map
The outlook is where the Predictions investment shows up as cash. DraftKings updated fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $6.35 billion to $6.55 billion and Adjusted EBITDA to $175 million to $275 million, "primarily reflecting the Company's increased Adjusted EBITDA investment in Predictions of $650 million to $700 million." Core Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is guided to $875 million to $925 million. Yahoo Finance reported those revenue and Adjusted EBITDA bands as cuts from prior ranges of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion and $700 million to $900 million.
For fiscal 2027 the company introduced revenue guidance of $7.35 billion to $7.75 billion (about 17% growth at the midpoint) and Adjusted EBITDA of $800 million to $1.0 billion, including $250 million to $350 million of Predictions investment. Predictions revenue for 2027 is guided to $650 million to $750 million; for 2026 it is described as immaterial because promotions offset most of the gross revenue. CEO Jason Robins said more than 1.6 million customers have engaged with Predictions year-to-date and called the quarter "a pivotal moment" for that product.
Twenty-One Percent Through a Nine-Percent Weekly Range
TipRanks listed an options-implied move of about 8.57% into the report. Delayed Cboe quotes at Thursday's close showed the November 6 weekly $23.50 call at $0.99 bid / $1.16 ask and the $23.50 put at $1.03 / $1.10, a midpoint straddle near $2.14, or about 9.1% of the $23.52 close. Break-evens sit near $21.38 and $25.66. An after-hours print near $18.55 is roughly $2.83 below the lower break-even: the $23.50 put would carry about $4.95 of intrinsic value against a straddle that cost about $2.14 at the midpoint. At the $17.68 low it was further through.
Front-week implied volatility on those strikes was quoted near 208% to 221% annualized, while DKNG's 30-day implied volatility index was about 66%. That gap is the usual shape when one expiration has to absorb an earnings gap. Those quotes are reference points, not fills: spreads can be wide, after-hours stock prints can fade or extend before Friday's open, and equity options do not trade until 9:30 AM ET.
Investment Headlines Versus Prepaid Premium
A gap this size past the prepaid move is hard on short straddles, short puts, and short put spreads written into the print, especially if Friday's open retests the after-hours low. Defined-risk put spreads cap that damage at the width of the wings, which is why they are often used around earnings when the story is guidance rather than a one-quarter miss. Holders of puts or put debit spreads collect from direction but still face the volatility reset once the front-week premium collapses toward the longer-dated level. Covered-call holders keep the premium but absorb the share loss. Our implied volatility guide covers how post-earnings IV usually compresses, and the OCC options disclosure document explains the risks of standardized options.
Sources
*By the OptionsPilot Editorial Team. Published November 5, 2026, 2:23 PM PT. This article is for education only and is not investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors.*
