A Beat Driven by Realized Prices, With a Tax Item on Top
ConocoPhillips' release reported earnings of $4.0 billion, or $3.34 per share, against $1.38 a year earlier. Excluding special items, which the company said mainly reflected the reversal of a tax reserve, adjusted earnings were $3.9 billion, or $3.27 per share, up from $1.61. Previews had set a range of bars: Investing.com cited $2.97, AlphaStreet $3.04 from 27 analysts, and OilPrice.net noted estimates of $2.95 to $3.05 from different data providers. The adjusted figure cleared all of them.
The company's average realized price was $61.40 per barrel of oil equivalent, 32% above the $46.44 of a year earlier. Cash from operations was $7.2 billion, and shareholder distributions were $3.4 billion, including $2.4 billion of buybacks. The quarterly dividend rises 11% to $0.93 per share, payable December 1 to holders of record on November 16.
Qatar Held Volumes Below Last Year
Production was 2,302 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOED), down 97 MBOED from a year earlier, or 40 MBOED after adjusting for acquisitions and sales. The release said Lower 48 growth was more than offset by the impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatar and higher Surmont royalties. OilPrice.net, citing Trefis, put the company's Q3 guide at 2.290 to 2.320 million BOE per day, so the quarter landed inside that range. For Q4 the company guided 2.32 to 2.36 million BOE per day and left full-year capital spending and adjusted operating cost guidance unchanged. This was also the first quarter under CEO Andy O'Brien, who said the company remains on track for a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029.
A Weekly Straddle Pricing About 3.4%
COP lists Friday weekly options, so the November 6 expiration carried the event. At Wednesday's close, Cboe quoted the November 6 $137 call at $2.04 to $2.45 and the $137 put at $2.12 to $2.62. At midpoints, that straddle cost about $4.62, roughly 3.4% of the $136.94 close, with break-evens near $132.33 and $141.62. Cboe's 30-day IV index read about 38.3%. A $138.41 premarket print sits well inside that range, which would leave a long straddle bought at the close showing a loss if the stock opened there.
Put Demand Came Before the Report
Wednesday's tape leaned slightly toward puts, about 9,900 puts against 9,580 calls. The busiest single line was the November 6 $140 put, at 1,397 contracts against prior open interest of 1,264, followed by the January 15, 2027 $135 put at 1,120. With the stock falling 5% on the day, some of that activity may reflect hedging against further oil weakness rather than a view on the earnings print, but volume alone does not show who was buying or selling.
Oil Beta Can Outweigh the Earnings Print
For an exploration and production company, the day after earnings can track crude more closely than the quarter itself, and COP's Wednesday drop came from oil, not company news. That leaves the weekly options exposed to two sources of movement: post-earnings implied volatility usually falls once results are out, while oil-price swings can keep realized moves large. Traders who sold premium into the print still carry that commodity risk through Friday's expiration. The noon ET earnings call can also move the stock once regular trading is under way. Our implied volatility guide covers how IV tends to behave around scheduled events, and the OCC options disclosure document explains the risks of standardized options.
Sources
*By the OptionsPilot Editorial Team. Published November 5, 2026, 4:19 AM PT. This article is for education only and is not investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors.*
