Two AI hardware bellwethers report after the close on Thursday, November 12, 2026. Networking company
Cisco (CSCO) releases fiscal first-quarter 2027 results with a call at 4:30 p.m. ET. Chip-equipment maker
Applied Materials (AMAT) releases fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results the same evening.
They report on the same day the AI trade is digesting Jensen Huang's resignation as Nvidia CEO, which we covered this morning. Both stocks were close to flat at midday, with no clear direction going into their reports.
The Numbers Each Company Has Already Promised
Cisco. In its August results release, Cisco guided first-quarter revenue to $18.0 billion to $18.2 billion and non-GAAP EPS to $1.32 to $1.34. According to Investing.com, consensus is $1.32 of EPS on $18.11 billion of revenue. That compares with $1.00 and $14.88 billion a year earlier.
Applied Materials. Its third-quarter release guided fourth-quarter revenue to about $10.25 billion, plus or minus $500 million, and non-GAAP EPS to about $4.02, plus or minus $0.20. Investing.com's preview puts consensus at $4.06 and $10.30 billion.
In both cases consensus sits close to company guidance, so a modest beat is largely expected.
Where Each Stock Can Surprise
For Cisco, previews point to two figures:
AI infrastructure revenue. Cisco has said it expects about $7.5 billion of AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in fiscal 2027, up from about $4 billion in fiscal 2026. This is the first quarter of that ramp. TipRanks cites JPMorgan's Joseph Cardoso, who rates the stock Buy and expects a "beat-and-raise," including a higher AI revenue target.
Gross margin. Cisco guided non-GAAP gross margin to 65% to 66%. Pip Theory notes that the stock fell about 12% in February and more than 8% in August after margin disappointments. Morgan Stanley downgraded Cisco to Equal-weight on November 5, per Investing.com, citing a rising mix of lower-margin hyperscaler hardware and the risk that customers pulled orders forward ahead of price increases.For Applied Materials, the main figure is the forecast for the January quarter. Investing.com says consensus is about $10.83 billion of revenue and $4.23 of EPS for that quarter. Previews also flag gross margin, which has risen from 48.0% to 50.3% over three quarters, and any comments on China and export controls.
Friday's Straddles, Side by Side
Midpoints of Cboe delayed quotes at about 11:48 a.m. ET for Cisco and 12:16 p.m. ET for Applied Materials:
| | CSCO | AMAT |
| Share price | $101.38 (+0.6%) | $392.00 (-0.8%) |
| Session range | $99.37 to $102.02 | $377.29 to $397.20 |
| Nov 13 at-the-money straddle | $101 strike: ~$9.08 | $392.50 strike: ~$27.77 |
| As a share of price | ~9.0% | ~7.1% |
| Nov 20 straddle | ~$10.15 (~10.0%) | ~$39.62 (~10.1%) |
| IV30 | ~51.2% | ~62.7% |
The Friday straddle expires one trading day after the report, so its price is mostly earnings premium. TipRanks put Cisco's options-implied move at 8.88%, in line with these quotes. It also said Cisco's last four post-earnings moves averaged 8.73%, ranging from 0.80% to 13.41%.
Applied Materials' recent reactions were smaller than its current implied move. Investing.com lists moves of -7.47%, 0.00%, +4.42% and -2.05% after the last four reports. That is an average of about 3.5%, against roughly 7.1% priced now. The stock has also become more volatile: Investing.com notes a drop of about 20% over the past month followed by an 8.4% bounce on Wednesday.
What the Chains Show
Cisco puts outnumbered calls about 24,400 to 20,100 contracts. The busiest line was the December $90 put, with about 12,700 contracts against open interest of about 3,000, quoted near $1.78 to $2.05. That looks like downside protection extending past the report.
Applied Materials leaned toward calls, about 15,100 to 11,500. The most active lines were the Nov 13 $410 calls, with about 1,670 contracts against open interest of about 820, and the Nov 20 $370 puts, with about 1,530 contracts.Volume does not tell us whether these trades were opening or closing, or whether they were bought or sold.
How the Event Premium Typically Behaves
These are general mechanics, not recommendations:
Implied volatility usually falls after the report. Friday options trade at very high implied volatility (Cboe shows about 190% for Cisco's $101 strikes and about 155% for Applied Materials' $392.50 strikes) because nearly all of their time value covers one overnight event. Once results are out, much of that premium tends to disappear quickly.
Long straddles need a move larger than the cost. A Cisco buyer at about $9.08 needs the stock to finish beyond roughly $91.92 or $110.08 by Friday's close. Being right about direction is not enough if the move is smaller than the premium.
Short premium has open-ended risk. Cisco's 13.41% move in one recent quarter shows how far a stock can travel past the implied move. Selling uncovered options exposes a trader to that tail.
Defined-risk structures such as iron condors, butterflies or vertical spreads limit the maximum loss. In exchange, they cap the potential gain.
Read-through risk. Applied Materials' guidance can move other chip-equipment stocks, and Cisco's AI order commentary can move networking names. Options on related stocks may reprice tonight too.For background, see our implied volatility explainer and the OCC options disclosure document.
Sources
Cisco: fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results and Q1 FY2027 guidance
Applied Materials: third-quarter fiscal 2026 results and Q4 guidance
Investing.com: Cisco earnings preview
Investing.com: Applied Materials fiscal Q4 2026 earnings preview
TipRanks: Cisco Q1 earnings preview and options-implied move
Pip Theory: Cisco Q1 FY2027 earnings preview
Cboe: CSCO delayed quotes and options
Cboe: AMAT delayed quotes and options*By the OptionsPilot Editorial Team. Published November 12, 2026, 9:21 AM PT. This article is for education only and is not investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors.*
